Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly
Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.
December 11, 2014
Oil, Roil, and Turmoil
The behavior of global financial markets this week could be characterized as “oil, roil, and turmoil.” The free fall in oil has equities under pressure and bonds rallying. The recent price action is betraying that we potentially have something darker and more sinister on our hands than we may have thought just a few weeks ago. If things play out as we suspect, both interest rates and oil prices will head meaningfully lower in the near term.
December 04, 2014
The Dark Side to Falling Oil Prices
Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to support its economy, and many other oil-dependent economies rely on oil prices well north of current levels. A recession in countries such as Russia will have significant knock-on effects, particularly for European exporters, creating another headwind for the beleaguered euro zone economies. An oil-price-induced negative feedback loop would stifle global growth and could even lead to political instability in any number of oil-dependent nations.
November 20, 2014
Falling Gas Prices Fuel Holiday Cheer
The domestic economy will benefit from the consumer spending power released by the decline in gasoline prices as well as rising equity prices. Despite the positive backdrop for the nation’s economy, though, the current rally in U.S. equities has still not been confirmed in the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line. The next few weeks will determine whether the current rally is sustainable.
November 07, 2014
'Risk On' for Now
U.S. high-yield bonds, leveraged credit, and equities will likely outperform in the coming months, but there are obstacles ahead.
October 29, 2014
Europe Must Act Now
Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. Quantitative easing in Europe is coming, but too slowly to avert a severe slowdown and perhaps even a hard landing. Mario Draghi, ECB president, has made it clear that the ECB must increase its balance sheet by at least €1 trillion—a tough mandate as the balance sheet will continue to shrink in the coming year as the earlier longer-term refinancing operation assets roll off. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another €1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough.
October 23, 2014
Short-Term Optimism, Longer-Term Caution
U.S. stocks will likely move higher as pension fund managers go bargain hunting in an effort to put seasonal cash inflows to work.
October 16, 2014
Seasonal Factors Ready to Turn Positive
After a volatile week in markets, U.S. equities are now oversold and investors should be alert for seasonal factors that should soon turn positive.
October 07, 2014
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - October 2014
Leveraged credit suffered from heightened volatility over the third quarter as mutual fund investors withdrew from the sector amid concerns about frothy valuations and talk of a credit bubble. We believe the high-yield bond market correction this quarter is healthy and overdue, but investors can expect choppier waters ahead. One segment we believe may help limit near-term volatility risk while capturing strong returns is middle-market debt.
October 02, 2014
Banquo’s Grain and U.S. Interest Rates
The U.S. economy is strong enough to suggest higher interest rates ahead, but a number of factors suggest U.S. Treasury yields could move lower.
September 24, 2014
After “Considerable Time,” Fed to Define “Highly Accommodative”
As the Federal Reserve maintains a “highly accommodative” monetary policy the central bank runs the risk of allowing the U.S. economy to overheat.
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