Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.


 
Market Perspectives

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

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Macro View

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The source of the current market correction is the massive misalignment of exchange rates, which finds its roots in quantitative easing.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

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Media Appearance

Video: Sources of Yield in a Low-Rate World

Pockets of opportunity still exist in select fixed-income asset classes, Guggenheim Partners Chairman of Investments and Global CIO Scott Minerd explains to CNBC’s Brian Sullivan at the recent Milken Conference.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.

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Recent Perspectives

March 12, 2015

This Too Shall Pass

Investors closely following the recent daily convulsions in the financial markets could be prone to overreaction. It never ceases to amaze me how a few days of sell-off in the stock market—or a modest back-up in rates, for that matter—can have everybody talking about bear markets. Looking beyond the myopic churn and burn, the important macro indicators remain positive, and nothing has occurred to fundamentally alter our positive outlook for equities or credit.

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March 05, 2015

The Great Monetary Expansion

While the United States is potentially headed toward a period marred by winter distortions, accommodative monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China, which cut its benchmark deposit and lending interest rates by 25 basis points last Saturday, provided further evidence—if any was needed—that the global economy will remain flush with liquidity for some time to come. The takeaway from this is that the great global monetary expansion is far from over and the outlook for stocks remains positive.

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February 26, 2015

Rate Hike Rally

The period before the Federal Reserve raises rates is historically a great time to invest in U.S. equities and credit. Over the past six tightening periods since 1980, the S&P 500 has returned 23.5 percent on average in the nine months prior to the first rate increase, and high-yield bonds and bank loans have outperformed investment-grade bonds by 4.0 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

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February 19, 2015

The Glass Ceiling on Rates

Once the Federal Reserve commences down the road of raising rates, how far will they ultimately go? Based on research we’ve conducted on the impact of higher rates on U.S. debt burden, it appears the terminal value for the federal funds rate—the point at which the Fed stops tightening in a cycle—is around 2.5 to 3 percent, a lot lower than many people expect.

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February 13, 2015

When Patience Disappears

Market observers keen to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move are wise to follow the trail of verbal breadcrumbs laid down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a policymaker I hold in high regard. When Fed policy seems uncertain or even inert, Dr. Bullard’s public statements have historically been a Rosetta stone for deciphering the Fed’s next move.

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February 05, 2015

The Good News Behind GDP's Decline

On Friday, it was announced that U.S. gross domestic product rose an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter—a marked slowdown from the 5 percent growth we witnessed in the third quarter of 2014. But what the market took to be bad news was actually a sign of economic strength.

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January 30, 2015

Good Company, Bad Stock

The U.S. economy is in the best shape out of any economy in the world, but it reminds me of a great business with a bad stock. Despite its underlying economic strength, I believe U.S. equity markets are likely to underperform those of less healthy economies in the long run. When I look around the world at economies that have many more problems than the United States, I see more upside potential for equity valuations and market performance in places like Europe, China and India.

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January 23, 2015

The Consumption of Davos

The European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing quickly became the consuming topic at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting. While I view this as arguably the most monumental event in the history of the European Union, the question remains whether it will be enough to stimulate Europe’s flagging economy.

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January 16, 2015

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

At current levels of overvaluation, the only factors holding interest rates down are the expectation of declining inflation as a result of the oil shock and the prospect of quantitative easing in Europe. This means we may be facing the old Wall Street adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” when it comes to Treasury prices. Once the one-time effect of declining oil prices has passed, inflation is likely to return to the underlying trend, which is higher than today. This, combined with European Central Bank announcement of quantitative easing, could mark the end of the recent spike down in interest rates.

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January 09, 2015

Supply Shock and Awe

The 1985-86 bear market in oil was the result of oversupply—too much oil was brought online relative to demand. During that period, prices declined more than 67 percent over four months or so. When oil prices started to rise again in April 1986, credit spreads started to tighten a few months later and within 12 months, the stock market was up over 20 percent. If history is any guide—and in this instance, I believe it may be—we are likely to see a similar situation play out today. But investors beware in the near-term. Even at $48 per barrel, oil is still a falling knife.

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