Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provide insights and analysis on markets and opportunities via weekly Macro Views, in-depth Market Perspectives, Sector Reports, and media appearances.


 
Market Perspectives

Rates Must Rise To Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

Read more

Macro View

Staring into an Abyss

With a resounding "NO" vote on the Greek referendum to accept the terms of Europe's proposed "bailout", market pundits are out in force talking about the coming turmoil. I think investors and policymakers alike would be wise to step back and put this unexpected outcome into perspective for the long term.

Read more

Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

Read more

Media Appearance

Video: The Bull Market Persists, but Proceed with Caution

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, shares insights on how long the current bull market could last, near-term challenges for investors, and how the Fed should manage raising rates.

Watch Video

Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

Read more

Latest Videos

Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd and his investment team share insights on investment opportunities around the world, U.S. monetary policy and new areas of economic development in this series of videos and media appearances.

View Our Full Video Library on YouTube
 
 

Recent Perspectives

February 05, 2015

The Good News Behind GDP's Decline

On Friday, it was announced that U.S. gross domestic product rose an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter—a marked slowdown from the 5 percent growth we witnessed in the third quarter of 2014. But what the market took to be bad news was actually a sign of economic strength.

Read More


January 30, 2015

Good Company, Bad Stock

The U.S. economy is in the best shape out of any economy in the world, but it reminds me of a great business with a bad stock. Despite its underlying economic strength, I believe U.S. equity markets are likely to underperform those of less healthy economies in the long run. When I look around the world at economies that have many more problems than the United States, I see more upside potential for equity valuations and market performance in places like Europe, China and India.

Watch Video


January 23, 2015

The Consumption of Davos

The European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing quickly became the consuming topic at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting. While I view this as arguably the most monumental event in the history of the European Union, the question remains whether it will be enough to stimulate Europe’s flagging economy.

Read More


January 16, 2015

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

At current levels of overvaluation, the only factors holding interest rates down are the expectation of declining inflation as a result of the oil shock and the prospect of quantitative easing in Europe. This means we may be facing the old Wall Street adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” when it comes to Treasury prices. Once the one-time effect of declining oil prices has passed, inflation is likely to return to the underlying trend, which is higher than today. This, combined with European Central Bank announcement of quantitative easing, could mark the end of the recent spike down in interest rates.

Read More


January 09, 2015

Supply Shock and Awe

The 1985-86 bear market in oil was the result of oversupply—too much oil was brought online relative to demand. During that period, prices declined more than 67 percent over four months or so. When oil prices started to rise again in April 1986, credit spreads started to tighten a few months later and within 12 months, the stock market was up over 20 percent. If history is any guide—and in this instance, I believe it may be—we are likely to see a similar situation play out today. But investors beware in the near-term. Even at $48 per barrel, oil is still a falling knife.

Read More


January 08, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2015

While the U.S. economy remains strong, equity and credit markets are becoming increasingly susceptible to certain macro-driven risks, such as the decline in oil prices. Plunging oil prices have dimmed the outlook for the energy sector and have caused spread widening across investment-grade and high-yield U.S. fixed-income assets. While we believe risk of defaults in energy is limited in the near term, now is the time to monitor significant exposures that may cause underperformance in potentially worst-case scenarios.

Read Report


December 17, 2014

A Tale of Two Markets

Investors should prepare for an extended period of depressed oil prices—oil still has substantial downside room to run before reaching a level of stability. As oil continues its decline, pressure is increasingly mounting on credit markets, especially high-yield corporate bonds, where energy-related borrowers represent 15-20 percent of the market. The flip side is that as spreads widen, we get closer to the levels where large investors start to see value.

Read More


December 11, 2014

Oil, Roil, and Turmoil

The behavior of global financial markets this week could be characterized as “oil, roil, and turmoil.” The free fall in oil has equities under pressure and bonds rallying. The recent price action is betraying that we potentially have something darker and more sinister on our hands than we may have thought just a few weeks ago. If things play out as we suspect, both interest rates and oil prices will head meaningfully lower in the near term.

Read More


December 04, 2014

The Dark Side to Falling Oil Prices

Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to support its economy, and many other oil-dependent economies rely on oil prices well north of current levels. A recession in countries such as Russia will have significant knock-on effects, particularly for European exporters, creating another headwind for the beleaguered euro zone economies. An oil-price-induced negative feedback loop would stifle global growth and could even lead to political instability in any number of oil-dependent nations.

Read More


November 20, 2014

Falling Gas Prices Fuel Holiday Cheer

The domestic economy will benefit from the consumer spending power released by the decline in gasoline prices as well as rising equity prices. Despite the positive backdrop for the nation’s economy, though, the current rally in U.S. equities has still not been confirmed in the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line. The next few weeks will determine whether the current rally is sustainable.

Read More




© 2015 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are trademarks or registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.