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Recent Perspectives

September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

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August 22, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2019

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.

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August 22, 2019

Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment Risks Rise as Mortgage Rates Drop

Prepayment risk for recently originated mortgages is high.

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August 22, 2019

Asset-Backed Securities and CLOs: Aircraft ABS is Flying Off the Shelves

Investor demand for investment-grade credit is increasing competition for aircraft ABS.

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August 22, 2019

Looking Past the Liquidity-Driven Rally

Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.

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August 22, 2019

Bank Loans: Favorable Technicals Lift Prices

Secondary loan prices rose in the second quarter on the back of robust CLO demand.

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