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Recent Perspectives

May 03, 2021

The Coming Disinflation

Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.

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April 07, 2021

Shifts in Risk

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April 05, 2021

Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market

Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.

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March 29, 2021

Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.

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March 25, 2021

A Successful Green New Deal Will Need Private Partners

A Green New Deal should not be viewed as a big government program, but as an opportunity to reinvent vast swaths of the U.S. economy while pursuing the laudable goal of carbon neutrality.

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March 22, 2021

The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve

Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.

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March 16, 2021

Inflation: Time For a Reality Check

Our view is that inflation will generally remain subdued in coming years, allowing the Fed to point to cumulative shortfalls from its two percent goal to support delaying the start of policy tightening.

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