After several quarters of low volatility, tight spreads, and abundant liquidity, financial conditions are shifting.
Economic conditions, goosed by tax reform, call for a faster pace of Fed rate hikes.
Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.
Investors are coming to terms with the idea that the Fed will keep raising rates because of inflation and economic pressures.
Assessing the risks of covenant-lite loans, 0 percent Libor floors, tax reform, and tightening spreads.
The Fed’s tapering program may pressure Agency MBS, but it could also increase investment opportunities.
Concern over high demand and record post-crisis tights has us focused on quality and liquidity.
Fundamentals continue to look healthy in loans, and we expect investors will benefit from higher future coupons.
The CMBS market is finally growing, but recent storms and transaction structures highlight broad market complacency.
While year-to-date sales volumes lag last year’s totals, originations continue at a strong pace.
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