Cyprus as a Pandora's Box

The attempt to levy a deposit tax on Cypriot accounts has the potential to further destabilize the European Union, with contagion risk elevating for other peripheral member states.

March 20, 2013   |    By Scott Minerd

#Cyprus has the potential to create a dramatic setback in European crisis and could even become a "Lehman Event" for Europe!

ScottMinerd

Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd

European policymakers have opened a Pandora’s box by attempting to levy a deposit tax in Cyprus. The proposed action amounts to a haircut, or worse, a wealth confiscation by the European Union (EU). The range and magnitude of the deposit tax make this action unprecedented in this crisis, and perhaps the history of major developed economies. One potential consequence is the spread of the perception that no deposits in the European periphery are safe, even if insured.

Contagion risk of bank runs and capital flight in larger economies like Spain and Italy has been significantly elevated, and this is likely to affect global markets in a dramatic way for an extended period. Worst case scenario is that the recent developments in Cyprus may prove to be Europe’s Lehman moment. Even if they do not, though, the EU has crossed a line that should never have been crossed.

Potential Contagion in Eurozone

Capital flow activity will determine whether the crisis in Cyprus will spill into other peripheral countries. Since Mario Draghi promised to defend the euro in July last year, deposit flows in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain have stabilized. A failure to reach an agreement on the resolution of the Cyprus crisis by policymakers could trigger a renewed deposit outflow in peripheral nations, which could have severe consequences for the eurozone as a whole. Close monitoring of bank deposit flows in the eurozone, therefore, is warranted in the coming weeks and months.

EUROZONE PERIPHERAL NATIONS’ BANK DEPOSITS*

Source: ECB, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12/31/2012. *Note: Data excludes deposits from monetary financial institutions and general government. Data rebased to 100 at the start of 2009.

Economic Data Releases

Rising Gas Prices Affect Retail Sales and CPI

International Releases Show Mixed Data

Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2014, Guggenheim Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.



FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding - Featured Perspectives
March 07, 2019

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding

Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.

Amber Lights Flash at Davos - Featured Perspectives
January 24, 2019

Amber Lights Flash at Davos

Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.

Sometimes Meteors Strike the Earth - Featured Perspectives
December 27, 2018

Sometimes Meteors Strike the Earth

What would be a normal seasonal correction is turning into the worst December selloff in equities since the Great Depression.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







© 2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.