Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.



The Sustainable Development Quotient

Scott Minerd discusses the importance of transitioning sustainable development into an institutional asset class.


February 06, 2013

Echoes of 2004

Rising equities and tightening credit spreads define the near-term investment outlook, but this is not the first time we have seen this cycle play out in recent memory.


January 31, 2013

Crystallization at Davos

The euphoria among my fellow Davos attendees was palpable, but short and long-term risks for the world’s advanced economies, including competitive currency devaluation, remain concerning.


January 24, 2013

Escape Velocity in the Economy

The broad improvement in U.S. economic data indicates that the economy is likely to continue to expand, supporting earnings growth and pointing to an eventual return of leveraged buy outs.


January 16, 2013

Signs of a Rotation

As yields continue to dwindle and risks in the fixed income market come into clearer focus, investors have begun to regard equities as a compelling alternative to bonds.


January 09, 2013

A Brighter Picture for Jobs and the Economy

Promising fundamental developments suggest that U.S. economic expansion is likely to continue and equities will rise in the first quarter. 


January 03, 2013

Restricted Room For Higher Rates

Interest rates should rise through 2013, however, the level to which they can increase will be limited by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing attempt to stimulate activity in the housing market.


December 04, 2012

The Keynesian Depression

The Great Depression brought about the Keynesian Revolution, complete with new analytical tools and economic programs that have been relied upon for decades. Over the years, the accumulation of these policy actions has reduced the flexibility to deal with crises and nations have now exceeded their ability to finance themselves without relying on their central banks as lenders of last resort. Increasingly large doses of monetary policy are required just to keep the economy expanding at a subpar pace. Some have referred to this as reaching the Keynesian endpoint.


October 10, 2012

Return to Bretton Woods

The gold-convertible U.S. dollar became the global reserve currency under the Bretton Woods monetary system that lasted from 1944-1971. This arrangement ended because foreign central banks accumulated excessive reserves of U.S. Treasuries, threatening price stability and the purchasing power of the dollar. Today, central banks are once again stockpiling massive Treasury reserves in an attempt to manage their currency values and gain advantages in export markets. We have, effectively, returned to Bretton Woods. The trouble is that the arrangement is as unsustainable today as it was during the middle of the last century.


August 22, 2012

The Faustian Bargain

Since 2008, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing instead of undertaking structural reforms have arguably entered into a Faustian bargain of epic proportions. What are the potential consequences of global central banks printing trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, francs, and yen in an attempt to provide short-term fixes for their nations’ long-term economic problems?


March 07, 2012

Winning the War in Europe

In centuries past, there have been many wars fought to bring Europe under one economic and political union. Today, in many ways, Europe is engaged in another war – a war to preserve the hard-fought gains of monetary and fiscal union built over the past five decades. Just as past European conflicts resulted in grave economic costs and massive amounts of debt, this fight has taken a similar path. How long will it take to resolve? The interwar period from 1918 to 1939 may offer some insight.







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