Market Yawns as Fed Tees Up Balance Sheet Runoff

Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.

August 16, 2017

This Macroeconomic Outlook sector report is excerpted from the Third Quarter 2017 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Second-quarter U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was solid at 2.6 percent annualized, rebounding from a soft 1.2 percent reading in the first quarter. We anticipate that personal spending will continue to propel above-trend real GDP growth in coming quarters, supported by strong gains in household income and net worth.

The U.S. labor market has strengthened further, with robust payroll gains of 209,000 in July. The 12-month moving average stands at 180,000, roughly double the amount needed to keep the unemployment rate steady. Indeed, the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.6 percentage point over the past year to 4.3 percent, and we expect further declines going forward. Inflation and wage gains have disappointed in recent months, however, with core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation slowing from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent year over year between February and June. While transitory factors account for some of the weakness, inflation should be accelerating, not slowing. Nevertheless, the Fed pressed forward with a quarter-point rate increase at its June meeting, and projected another hike in 2017, plus three more in both 2018 and 2019. The Fed’s forecasts show that it expects inflation weakness will not persist beyond 2017.

A key reason the Fed is shrugging off soft inflation data is that measures of broad U.S. financial conditions—which incorporate factors such as short- and long-term interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices and the exchange value of the dollar— have eased even as the Fed has raised rates (see chart, bottom right). There has also been a benign market reaction to the Fed’s pre-announcement of its balance sheet normalization strategy, which we expect to be implemented starting in October. The fact that growth-friendly financial conditions still prevail despite Fed tightening— and diminished odds of fiscal easing—has given the Fed confidence that it can stick to its plans to gradually raise rates and shrink its balance sheet without damaging the economy. We see the next Fed hike in December.

The ECB’s path is arguably more treacherous than the Fed’s because markets are more uncertain about the future of the ECB’s asset purchase program. Purchases are currently scheduled to continue at a pace of €60 billion per month through 2017. We expect the ECB will announce a reduction in the purchase pace to €40 billion through at least mid-2018, effective in January, later this fall. With the tide of central bank liquidity receding, markets are due for an increase in volatility.

Booming Markets Have Lifted U.S. Household Net Worth to an All-Time High

Extraordinary monetary accommodation has boosted asset valuations and lifted household net worth to an all-time high, which should help support consumer spending.

Booming Markets Have Lifted U.S. Household Net Worth to an All-Time High

Source: Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Board, Guggenheim Investments. Official data through 3.31.2017. Guggenheim estimates through 7.15.2017. Shaded areas indicate recession.

Financial Conditions Have Eased Despite Fed Tightening

Market indifference to Fed tightening has given policymakers confidence to continue normalizing policy.

Financial Conditions Have Eased Despite Fed Tightening

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 7.15.2017. Shaded areas indicate recession.

—Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research; Maria Giraldo, CFA, Director

Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2017, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough? - Featured Perspectives
September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

Looking Past the Liquidity-Driven Rally - Featured Perspectives
August 22, 2019

Looking Past the Liquidity-Driven Rally

Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.

The Fed's Sugar High - Featured Perspectives
July 29, 2019

The Fed's Sugar High

Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.


Fixed-Income Outlook 

Third Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Matt Bush, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, share insights from the third quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.

© 2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.