Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Midyear 2021 Outlook

SBrian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.


March 11, 2021

The Best and Worst of Times

Pandemic deaths continue to mount, but vaccine deployment and massive policy support will lift growth in 2021.


November 03, 2020

Guggenheim’s 2020 Election Portfolios

Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We will publish daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.


January 22, 2020

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2020

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.


December 23, 2019

Signs of Life in Global Manufacturing

The beleaguered manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement.


December 23, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2019

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the risk and reward of “mid-cycle” rate cuts.


September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.


August 22, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2019

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.


August 22, 2019

Fed Cuts Rates as Downside Risks Build

The U.S. economy is strong, but soft inflation and downside risks to growth prompted the first Fed rate cut since 2008.


June 17, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.


June 17, 2019

Will the Fed’s Pivot Save the Day?

Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.