Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.


November 14, 2017

Normalizing Today, Overshooting Tomorrow

A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.


November 14, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2017

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.


August 16, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2017

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.


August 16, 2017

Market Yawns as Fed Tees Up Balance Sheet Runoff

Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.


August 07, 2017

The Transition Away from Libor

Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.


May 24, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2017

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook suggest that now is a time for caution amid tight spreads and evolving monetary and fiscal policy.







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