Maria Giraldo, CFA, Managing Director, Investment Research, and Evan Serdensky, Director, Portfolio Management, provide our macro and markets outlook.
A disappointing May jobs report strengthens our conviction that Fed policymakers will stay the course.
The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.
Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.
Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.
The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.
Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.
Our view is that inflation will generally remain subdued in coming years, allowing the Fed to point to cumulative shortfalls from its two percent goal to support delaying the start of policy tightening.
Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we are staying on offense.
Pandemic deaths continue to mount, but vaccine deployment and massive policy support will lift growth in 2021.
Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We will publish daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.
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