Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.

 

Macro Themes for 2020

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.

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March 07, 2019

It’s All Downhill from Here

Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.

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January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.

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November 19, 2018

Rising Rates Are Beginning to Bite

Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.

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November 19, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2018

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe it is time to start jogging to the exits.

Forecasting the Next Recession

October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

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August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.

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August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.

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August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018 - Image Thumbnail

May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.

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May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.





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