SBrian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.
Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.
A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.
Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.
Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.
Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.
Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.
Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.
Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook suggest that now is a time for caution amid tight spreads and evolving monetary and fiscal policy.
A tightening labor market and near-target inflation will keep the Fed on track even as fiscal policy sputters.
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