Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 41: Quarterly Macro Themes for Q3 2023

U.S. Economist Matt Bush, Investment Strategist Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist Chris Squillante, and Economist Jerry Cai join Macro Markets to discuss the latest Quarterly Macro Themes, which takes a deep dive into issues helping shape our baseline economic views.


September 15, 2023

Third Quarter 2023 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.


August 21, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: Strong First Half Doesn’t Negate Recession Concerns

U.S. economic activity has been better than expected, but leading recession indicators still argue for caution.


June 20, 2023

Second Quarter 2023 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.


May 16, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: The Economic Cycle Is Reaching a Turning Point

Leading signals are flashing red as the debt ceiling takes center stage.


February 22, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: Goldilocks Economy Now, But Recession Looms in 2023

We expect that a recession in 2023 will not be overly severe, particularly with improved global prospects.


January 27, 2023

10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023

10 charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends we believe are most likely to shape the investment environment in 2023.


January 12, 2023

Inflation Release Adds to Good News for the Fed…and Bonds

Recent data is moving in the Fed’s desired direction.


November 04, 2022

The Jobs Data Trend Is Duration’s Friend

October jobs data suggests a cooling labor market.


October 28, 2022

Weaker Payrolls Will Reward Pent-Up Demand for Fed Pivot

Weakening jobs picture will signal that Fed tightening is working as intended.


August 19, 2022

Stocks Are in Trouble if S&P Fails to Break Above its 200-day Moving Average

Deeper losses for equities may lay ahead.