Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Midyear 2021 Outlook

SBrian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.


September 15, 2021

Weak Data and Fiscal Uncertainty Will Delay Fed Tapering

Bond yields could fall further as rising fiscal risks get priced in.


August 18, 2021

Delta Impact on Consumer Behavior Will Delay Tapering Announcement

The resurgent virus should keep a lid on Treasury Yields.


August 11, 2021

Latest CPI Validates the Transitory Nature of Inflation Spikes

Falling demand will help limit the extent of more price increases.


July 14, 2021

Still No Reason to Panic About Inflation

Taking a look at the upside surprise in June’s CPI.


June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.


June 04, 2021

Unpacking the May Jobs Report: Further Progress, but Far from Substantial

A disappointing May jobs report strengthens our conviction that Fed policymakers will stay the course.


May 19, 2021

Inflation Is Spiking, But You Only Reopen the Economy Once

The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.


May 03, 2021

The Coming Disinflation

Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.


April 05, 2021

Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market

Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.


March 29, 2021

Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.