Hazards of the Next Two Years Part 4: The Pig in the Python

Lower term premiums and a flat yield curve are transitory effects of fiscal stimulus.

August 15, 2018   |    By Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink - Featured Perspectives
June 17, 2019

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot has supported a rally in most credit sectors, but investors should worry about late cycle excesses.

U.S.-China Trade War: The New Long March - Featured Perspectives
May 23, 2019

U.S.-China Trade War: The New Long March

Beijing is preparing for a protracted standoff as the U.S.-China trade war ramps up.

Quantifying the Credit Risk and Default Runway - Featured Perspectives
May 17, 2019

Quantifying the Credit Risk and Default Runway

After the recession starts, high-yield bond and bank loan issuers have at least a 12-month runway before we experience a large wave of defaults.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecating the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”




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