Setting the Stage for the Coming Recession

Brian Smedley, head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, explains what the data tell us about the timing and severity of the coming recession.

October 18, 2019

 

 

Key Takeaways:

  • Fed rate cuts could start to have more impact, but so far data are consistent with our recession forecast, which also suggests the next recession will be of average severity.
  • Limited monetary and fiscal policy space may prolong the recession; the Fed doesn’t have much room to maneuver on rates, and the effect of 2018’s one-time tax cuts has worn off.
  • When the business cycle turns, the Fed is likely to pull out all the stops by cutting rates to the zero bound and recommencing asset purchases.
  • Historical evidence of “successful” Fed cuts is mixed, however, and it is difficult to correctly time policy moves.
  • At this point in the cycle, we believe there is more risk to the downside than upside and caution investors to focus on capital preservation.


Read Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

 

Important Notices and Disclosures

The views and strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The value of any investment may rise or fall over time. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. The content of this video is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. The material should not be considered research nor is it intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Any opinions contained herein are not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries and are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and nonproprietary research and other sources. This material has been provided by Guggenheim Investments which represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Transparent Value Advisors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

The Fed’s Roadmap - Featured Perspectives
June 08, 2020

The Fed’s Roadmap

The Fed has increasingly unorthodox policy options if the economy remains mired in a protracted downturn.

Reaching the End of the Runway - Featured Perspectives
May 20, 2020

Reaching the End of the Runway

While the U.S. speculative-grade default rate could reach 15 percent in this cycle, the market is offering better entry points than seen in years.

We Are All Government-Sponsored Enterprises Now - Featured Perspectives
May 10, 2020

We Are All Government-Sponsored Enterprises Now

The support to corporate America during this economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government.


VIDEO

Fixed-Income Outlook 

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch share insights from the fourth quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.




© 2020 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.