Tools for Forecasting the Next Recession

The methodology and metrics that inform our recession outlook.

June 04, 2019

 
 

Read our series "Forecasting the Next Recession", which includes Guggenheim Investments' Recession Probablity Model and Recession Dashboard updates:

 

Important Notices and Disclosures

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This material is distributed for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This article is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

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©2019, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. 


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

The Fed's Sugar High - Featured Perspectives
July 29, 2019

The Fed's Sugar High

Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.

High-Yield Credit in a Fed Easing Cycle - Featured Perspectives
July 17, 2019

High-Yield Credit in a Fed Easing Cycle

High-yield corporate bond spreads and bank loan discount margins typically widen when the Fed is lowering interest rates.

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink - Featured Perspectives
June 17, 2019

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot has supported a rally in most credit sectors, but investors should worry about late cycle excesses.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecating the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”




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