Walking the Risk Tightrope - Title Image

Walking the Risk Tightrope

Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.

February 21, 2018


Fixed Income Outlook video

Adam Bloch and Brian Smedley share insights from the First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook


Fixed-Income Outlook

First Quarter 2018

Report Summary

Fixed-income markets have been walking a risk tightrope for several quarters. Bonds in most sectors are trading above par, yields are historically low, and spreads are near or below pre-crisis levels. The best that a bond investor can reasonably hope for in this market is to earn the coupon, while principal is at risk from an active Federal Reserve, the looming increase in Treasury supply, geopolitical risk, and any credit deterioration. Current conditions could persist for some time—economic growth is accelerating, monetary policy is not overly restrictive, and optimism is high—but history has shown that with a recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.

 
 
Important Notices and Disclosures

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

Late-Cycle Boost and Boom - Featured Perspectives
July 18, 2018

Late-Cycle Boost and Boom

Investors should stay guarded for exogenous shocks that could pull the next recession forward and cause markets to reprice credit risk.

No One Wins a Trade War - Featured Perspectives
July 17, 2018

No One Wins a Trade War

If you want to see who the real victims of tariffs are, go look in the mirror.

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum - Featured Perspectives
July 09, 2018

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Shortening duration, maintaining an investment-grade portfolio, and generating attractive yields do not have to be competing investment objectives for core fixed-income investors.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







© 2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.