February 23, 2018
Low loan defaults and muted volatility in 2017 created a favorable credit environment for loan investors and borrowers alike. We saw another year of strong refinancing and repricing activity, which tightened contractual spreads by 6 basis points quarter over quarter and 34 basis points year over year. Refinancing activity also helped borrowers push the maturity wall out to 2024, when over 30 percent of loans are expected to mature. Just three years ago, half of outstanding loans were expected to mature in 2020 or 2021. We expect much of the same for 2018. Refinancing and M&A activity should drive healthy supply, which we expect to be met with strong demand from investors looking for floating-rate assets in an environment in which the Fed is continuing to raise interest rates.
Another year of strong refinancing and repricing activity caused contractual spreads to tighten by 6 basis points quarter over quarter and 34 basis points year over year. Refinancing activity also helped borrowers push the maturity wall out to 2024, when over 30 percent of loans are expected to mature.
Source: Credit Suisse, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.2017.
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index posted a gain of 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, bringing 2017 returns to 4.2 percent. CCC-rated loans were the best performers with an 8.0 percent total return, outperforming the high-yield corporate bond index, but not CCC-rated corporates. BB-rated and B-rated loans returned 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, significantly underperforming CCCs for the year.
We expect 2018 will see further loosening of credit standards. The covenant-lite issuance trend continues to strengthen, representing 74 percent of the par amount of loans outstanding. In addition to the removal of financial maintenance covenants, we saw a weakening of negative covenants in credit documents as borrowers and sponsors continue to push the envelope to preserve their options in a downturn. We believe these actions will likely reduce lenders’ recoveries when defaults rise. Lastly, we have seen first-lien BB-loans issued with 0 percent London interbank offered rate (Libor) floors (or in a few cases, no Libor floor), reversing the post-crisis trend of 0.75–1.25 percent Libor floors. We categorize such activities as late-cycle behavior. The credit health of individual companies will likely remain strong for now, but loosening covenants and weakening credit documents remain a source of concern for our credit team as they will likely reduce recoveries when defaults rise. In response, we remain defensive in our credit selection, focusing on investments that we believe can survive the next downturn and allow us to comfortably hold them until maturity.
We expect 2018 will see further loosening of credit standards as we have seen over the past several years. The covenant-lite issuance trend continues to strengthen, representing 74 percent of the par amount of loans outstanding.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 1.19.2018.
—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Christopher Keywork, Managing Director
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.
Investors are coming to terms with the idea that the Fed will keep raising rates because of inflation and economic pressures.
Euphoria at Davos may be a sign that the market melt up may soon begin to cool.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.