Bank Loans: A Double-Edged Sword

Concerns about inflation and a steeper path for Fed rate hikes buoyed investor demand for floating-rate assets, but defaults are ticking higher.

May 17, 2018


This Bank Loans sector report is excerpted from the Second Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Loan mutual funds and exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of almost $4 billion year to date through April, compared to net outflows of over $15 billion for high-yield corporate bond funds. We saw similar activity in mutual fund flows in late 2016, when a 127 basis point backup in 10-year Treasury yields—from a low of 1.36 percent in July 2016 to 2.63 percent in March 2017—was accompanied by cumulative net loan fund inflows of $23 billion over the same period. Bank loans outperformed high-yield corporate bonds for the second quarter in a row on the back of strong investor demand.

Loan Fund Flows Turned Positive as Treasury Yields Rose

Bank loan mutual funds and ETFs saw inflows of $4 billion year to date through April. We saw similar activity in mutual fund flows in late 2016, when a 127-basis point backup in 10-year Treasury yields—from a low of 1.36 percent in July 2016 to 2.63 percent in March 2017—was accompanied by cumulative net loan fund inflows of $23 billion over the same period.

Loan Fund Flows Turned Positive as Treasury Yields Rose

Source: Bloomberg, Lipper, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 4.27.2018. LHS = left hand side, RHS = right hand side.

The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index posted gains across all ratings. On average, leveraged loans returned 1.6 percent for the quarter, with CCC-rated loans delivering the strongest gains of 3.6 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for BB-rated loans, and 1.6 percent for B-rated loans.

The significant increase in rates may attract investors to floating-rate loans, but it will have negative consequences for some borrowers. This is highlighted in the recent uptick in default activity, with both the 12-month trailing par and issuerweighted default rates going up in the first quarter of 2018. Nevertheless, the loan market continues to look healthy, with no widespread deterioration at this stage. Loan interest coverage stands at 3.8x compared to the 15-year average of 3.5x and historical low of 2.6x. This is largely the result of heavy refinancing activity last year, which helped drive loan spreads tighter and kept the increase in borrowing costs contained. But with refinancing activity taking a backseat to mergers and acquisitions activity this year, borrowing costs have been increasing. We do not expect meaningful deterioration in loan interest coverage until Libor reaches 3 percent or more, but as recent default activity shows, we could see some early casualties from the steady rise in borrowing costs.

Loan Defaults Are Ticking Higher in 2018 as Rates Rise

Rising rates will have negative consequences for some borrowers. This is highlighted in the recent uptick in default activity, with both the 12-month trailing par and issuer weighted default rates going up in the first quarter of 2018.

Loan Defaults Are Ticking Higher in 2018 as Rates Rise

Source: S&P LCD, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2018. Gray areas represent periods of recession.

—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Christopher Keywork, Managing Director

 
Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


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