August 16, 2017
Private label CMBS now represents only 10 percent of outstanding CRE finance, down from a peak of 23 percent in 2007. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have assumed a near-monopoly in multifamily finance, and the demand from banks and insurance companies has dramatically encroached on CMBS’s footprint. From a credit perspective, CMBS metrics are somewhat mixed in 2017, as first mortgage loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) have improved alongside greater concentrations in interest-only loans and increased mezzanine and B note financing. Recently, CMBS bonds have traded in secondary markets at significant discounts to new issue. Despite similar metrics and shorter tenors, CMBS secondary bonds are not finding the sponsorship of their new-issue counterparts.
While CMBS supply constraints have buttressed CMBS spread levels in the face of an 8 percent decline in CRE transaction volumes and ongoing retail challenges, the dislocation between primary and secondary markets is difficult to explain. Viewed in a positive light, the dislocation represents a buying opportunity for investors with sufficient resources and patience to navigate secondary markets, but may highlight liquidity concerns and a splintering buyer base at current new-issue spread levels. By contrast, large loan CMBS has had robust new issue supply and significant secondary demand. Year to date, $17.9 billion large loan transactions have been issued, compared to $8 billion last year. Primary and secondary market demand for these transactions has remained exceptionally high. In the secondary market, these transactions often trade at a premium, subjecting investors to a negative yield to worst. The risk of these securities being called and refinanced remains high in our estimation, and we have generally withdrawn from those secondary markets as a result.
Post-crisis CMBS, as measured by the Barclays U.S. CMBS 2.0 index, posted a positive total return of 1.4 percent for the second quarter. The AAA-rated and AA-rated tranches of the index returned 1.3 percent each, while A-rated and BBB-rated CMBS 2.0 tranches had stronger total returns of 1.7 and 2.6 percent, respectively.
Given the mixed market technicals, we have become more defensive. We generally prefer up-in-credit securities and have focused on secondary markets to the extent possible. We remain active in floating-rate large loan and CRE CLO transactions, and have limited our activity to primary markets where the purchase price is not at a premium and our investors are not exposed to negative yields in a call scenario.
Private label CMBS now represents only 10 percent of commercial and multi-family debt outstanding, down from its peak of 23 percent in 2007, while market share of Agency CMBS, as well as banks and insurance companies, has increased.
Source: Flow of Funds Accounts, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Commercial Mortgage Alert, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.2016. Note: The Federal Reserve changed its reporting for CMBS in Q2 2013, which resulted in a decrease in outstanding CMBS of about $130 billion that was recategorized as REIT debt.
CMBS supply constraints have buttressed CMBS spread levels in the face of a 12 percent decline in CRE transaction volumes and ongoing challenges for retail properties.
Source: Wells Fargo, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 7.17.2017. New issue XA is a type of interest-only tranche.
—Peter Van Gelderen, Managing Director; Shannon Erdmann, Director; Simon Deery, Vice President
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2017, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.
Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.
Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.
Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Matt Bush, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, share insights from the third quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.