Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Shrinking Supply

Late-cycle loan market competition is putting pressure on CMBS issuers, but opportunities remain to position defensively.

June 17, 2019


This CMBS sector report is excerpted from the Second Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

First quarter overall issuance in private label CMBS (including CRE-CLO) fell 11 percent compared to the same period last year. The drop was primarily due to declining new issuance for conduit and single asset/single borrower (SASB) loans. CRE-CLO issuance continues to rise and has made up for some of the shortfall, but a competitive loan market continues to pressure this sector. Conduit originators have been unable to remain competitive with the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and spreads offered by debt funds, real estate investment trusts, and insurance companies. As such, we expect the conduit market share to drop again in 2019. The one area of strength, CRE-CLO issuance, is shaping up to come in on the high end of expectations with a 37 percent increase over the same time last year, aided at this point in the cycle by the relative attractiveness of their shorter weighted average lives (WAL).

The limited supply on the new issue front has been a driver of the spread tightening across all asset types in CMBS as investors have fewer options to put money to work. The credit curve has also flattened dramatically, with the basis between BBBs and AAAs approaching the levels last seen in the third quarter last year, leading us to believe there is not much room left in the rally down the credit stack.

Spreads Between Conduit BBBs and AAAs Have Recovered

The credit curve has flattened dramatically, with the basis between BBBs and AAAs approaching the levels last seen in the third quarter last year, leading us to believe there is not much room left in the rally down the stack.

Spreads Between Conduit BBBs and AAAs Have Recovered

Source: Guggenheim Investments, J.P. Morgan. Data as of 5.31.2019.

We currently see attractive relative value between CRE-CLOs and corporate CLOs. At the AAA and AA rating level, managed CRE-CLOs and broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLOs currently offer similar spreads. CRE-CLOs are used to finance loans on collateral managers’ balance sheets, while BSL CLOs are arbitrage vehicles created for collateral managers to collect fees and CLO equity returns. When adjusting CRE-CLO for the shorter WAL they exhibit, these bonds looks particularly attractive. Single A-rated CRE-CLO bonds also look attractive even with the tighter spread because of the shorter WAL, higher credit enhancement, and sponsor risk retention.

With Shorter Weighted Average Lives, CRE-CLOs Appear Attractive

We currently see attractive relative value between CRE-CLOs and corporate CLOs. At the AAA and AA rating level, managed CRE-CLOs and BSL CLOs currently offer similar spreads, despite having shorter WAL. A shorter WAL profile can offer better mark-to-market protection in the event of a correction.

With Shorter Weighted Average Lives, CRE-CLOs Appear Attractive

Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg. Data as of 5.31.2019.

We continue to position defensively and prefer short WAL securities such as seasoned high-quality conduits, senior interest-only bonds, CRE-CLOs, and short-dated SASB structures.

—Shannon Erdmann, Director; Phil Hoehn, Vice President; Darragh Murphy, Vice President

 
Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

©2019, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


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