December 23, 2019
In recent years a decline in U.S. manufacturing activity has tended to coincide with widening high-yield credit spreads, but that has not been the case this year. High-yield spreads tightened 5 basis points over the third quarter of 2019 and as of Oct. 18 are 122 basis points tighter since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession, with several consecutive months of ISM Manufacturing PMI prints below 50, but credit spreads remain tight at the index level.
The U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession, with several consecutive months of ISM Manufacturing PMI prints below 50, but credit spreads remain tight at the index level. Similar slumps in manufacturing activity have resulted in spread widening, but that has not been the case this year.
Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays Indexes, Credit Suisse. Data as of 9.30.2019.
Similar slumps in manufacturing activity have resulted in spread widening, but that has not been the case this year. Nevertheless, spreads have widened for CCC-rated bonds, signaling rising concern about credit.
The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High-Yield Constrained index delivered a return of 1.2 percent in the third quarter, bringing total returns to 11.5 percent year to date. The best year-to-date performance has come from BBs, with a total return of 13.0 percent, followed by single Bs with a return of 11.2 percent, and finally CCCs, trailing with a total return of 6.0 percent. For the quarter, CCCs lost 2.4 percent, while BBs and Bs held on to positive returns of 2.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
Averaging almost 1,000 basis points in the third quarter, CCC spreads appear to be on a path similar to late 2015, when spreads ultimately peaked at 2,000 basis points. Current CCC spreads might look appealing to those who do not foresee a repeat of 2015–2016, but our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group believes the data show the economy is in a vulnerable place that could easily tip credit into another recession-like scenario. Weighing the upside potential of spreads tightening against the downside that they may widen another 1,000+ basis points, CCC spreads do not compensate investors for the risk. Instead, we continue to find value in BBs, and especially single Bs, which are not trading as much above par as BBs.
Weighing the upside potential of spreads tightening against the downside that they may widen another 1,000+ basis points, CCC spreads do not compensate investors for the risk.
Source: Guggenheim Investments, ICE Index Services. Data as of 10.18.2019. Shaded area represents recession.
—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Rich de Wet, Director
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.
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