High-Yield Corporate Bonds: Demand Shifts from Floating to Fixed

While high-yield bond spreads have recovered some of the ground they lost in the fourth quarter, we caution against adding too much spread duration at this point in the cycle.

March 07, 2019


This High-Yield Corporate Bonds sector report is excerpted from the First Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

In the early weeks of 2019, high-yield corporates have retraced almost half of the spread widening that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2018. Spreads widened by 200 basis points in the fourth quarter, but have tightened in 2019. At this pace, we may even revisit post-crisis tights of 327 basis points. Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group believes the Fed will be forced to pause its rate hiking campaign through the first half of 2019 as it reacts to the recent tightening in financial conditions. We expect this pause to support high-yield corporate returns in the near term. The rally in oil also supports some upside for energy credits, which still comprise 15 percent of the high-yield market. Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group’s oil model puts West Texas Intermediate prices closer to $70 per barrel in the second half of 2019.

High-Yield Bonds Have Retraced Almost Half of the Widening from Last Quarter

High-yield corporates have retraced almost half of the spread widening that occurred in the fourth quarter. Spreads widened by 200 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2018 but have tightened in 2019.

High-Yield Bonds Have Retraced Almost Half of the Widening from Last Quarter

Source: Guggenheim Investments, ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Data as of 1.24.2019.

The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Constrained High-Yield index lost 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter. In a stark reversal from previous quarters, lower quality significantly underperformed higher quality. BBs and Bs lost 3.0 percent and 4.9 percent in the quarter, while CCCs lost 10.3 percent on a total return basis. We had expected this reversal to occur at some point this year, given very stretched valuations in CCC corporates relative to Bs and BBs at the end of the third quarter of 2018. However, the recent selloff pushed relative value back in favor of CCCs, allowing the lower quality tranches to outperform higher quality in the rebound. High-yield corporates are up year to date, providing a healthy start to 2019 performance.

As the December freeze in activity thawed, we saw a healthy supply of high-yield corporates. After shutting down for five weeks in late 2018, year-to-date high-yield corporate bond issuance is now tracking above every year since 2015. Anecdotally, we find many deals to be oversubscribed as the Fed’s pause has shifted demand from floating-rate to fixed-rate assets. Though high-yield fund flows were somewhat shaky to start the year, they are beginning to see strong inflows with two of the last four weeks ending Feb. 6 recorded as the largest weekly inflows since mid-2016. This demand dynamic may continue while the Fed is on pause. However, given fading tailwinds and slowing global growth, we remain cautious in our approach to credit investing, and would not look to add much spread duration at this point in the cycle.

High-Yield Issuance Has Rebounded and Is in Line with Recent Years

After the December freeze in activity thawed, high-yield corporate issuance is now tracking the pace of the last few years.

High-Yield Issuance Has Rebounded and Is in Line with Recent Years

Source: Guggenheim Investments, S&P LCD. Data as of 2.8.2019.

—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Rich de Wet, Director

 
Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

©2019, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

U.S.-China Trade War: The New Long March - Featured Perspectives
May 23, 2019

U.S.-China Trade War: The New Long March

Beijing is preparing for a protracted standoff as the U.S.-China trade war ramps up.

Quantifying the Credit Risk and Default Runway - Featured Perspectives
May 17, 2019

Quantifying the Credit Risk and Default Runway

After the recession starts, high-yield bond and bank loan issuers have at least a 12-month runway before we experience a large wave of defaults.

The Next Step for the Fed Could Be a Hike - Featured Perspectives
April 29, 2019

The Next Step for the Fed Could Be a Hike

Signs of economic strength suggest the market is wrong to price in a rate cut.


VIDEO

Fixed-Income Outlook 

First Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the first quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







© 2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.