May 17, 2018
On Feb. 1, 2018, the Barclays Corporate Credit index spread reached 85 basis points, its tightest level since 2007. By the end of the first quarter, however, spreads had retraced by 25 percent to 110 basis points, a sign that the tightening trend in investment-grade corporate credit spreads appears to be approaching its natural conclusion. The positive technical backdrop that accommodative monetary policy supported for so long may be the very thing that unravels our fragile credit ecosystem as the market transitions from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. Credit spreads will likely experience bouts of fatigue over the next quarter, though these episodes will likely be met with support as rising rates drive demand from pension funds. Foreign holdings of corporate debt remain high, but rising foreign exchange hedging costs could stymie the technical support bid for U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds.
Foreign holdings of corporate debt remain high, but rising foreign exchange hedging costs could stymie the technical support bid for U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds. With longstanding technicals weakening, spreads will likely experience bouts of fatigue over the next quarter, and tightening may be nearing its natural conclusion.
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 4.23.2018. LHS = left hand side, RHS = right hand side.
Meanwhile, the path of rising rates, as well as the recent widening of credit spreads, should call into question the ability of some companies to manage their increased debt loads. Corporate debt structures have enjoyed low financing for the better part of a decade. This, along with favorable corporate tax reform, has resulted in increased M&A activity so far this year. Leverage for the investment-grade universe has steadily risen from about 1.7x in 2012 to 2.5x in 2017, which could pose problems as the windfall from tax cuts dissipates.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond index lost 2.3 percent during the first quarter of 2018 as a result of a duration-driven selloff plus some spread widening. Excess returns were -0.8 percent and spreads widened 16 basis points quarter over quarter. Returns were negative for all ratings, with AAA-rated, AA-rated, A-rated, and BBB-rated bonds losing 3.1 percent, 1.8 percent, 2.6 percent, and 2.2 percent, respectively.
Leverage for the investment-grade universe has steadily risen from about 1.7x in 2012 to 2.5x in 2017, which could pose problems as the windfall from tax cuts dissipates.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.2017. Gray area represents recession.
All told, the easy one-way trade in investment-grade corporate spreads is nearing its end. The path forward will require that investors better understand the credits they own, and determine the appropriate duration for their portfolios. As spreads come under pressure and negative technicals become more pronounced, we believe deep fundamental analysis will be key to identifying the pitfalls and the opportunities of a more challenging investment environment.
—Jeffrey Carefoot, CFA, Senior Managing Director; Justin Takata, Managing Director
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
While the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, exogenous risks threaten asset values, market confidence, and the strength of the U.S. economy.
To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.
Investors should stay guarded for exogenous shocks that could pull the next recession forward and cause markets to reprice credit risk.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.