August 16, 2017
Demand continues to outpace new supply in the investment-grade corporate bond sector. Investment from Asia in both the front end and long end remains strong and supportive of spread tightening. Domestic life insurers, which had been absent for the majority of the first half of 2017, have now started buying 20–30 year corporate bonds in an aggressive fashion. There is also significant cash for reinvestment due to premium take-outs. Meanwhile, supply is limited compared to the past couple of years. Record gross issuance volumes are misleading as net issuance is down 12 percent year over year. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity was only $85 billion in the first half of 2017, which is relatively low compared to prior years. M&A issuance for the year is on track to reach $160 billion, well short of 2015’s $301 billion and 2016’s $263 billion. We expect supply for the remainder of the year will remain fairly limited, which should help spreads tighten further.
Low M&A volumes are contributing to limited supply in investment-grade corporate bonds. M&A issuance for 2017 is on track to reach $160 billion, well short of the $301 billion and $263 billion issued in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Source: S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2017.
The Bloomberg Barclays Investment-Grade Bond index delivered a 2.5 percent total return during the second quarter. Spreads tightened by 9 basis points quarter over quarter and 13 basis points since the beginning of the year, ending June at 109 basis points. The metals and mining industry remains the outperformer for the year, while energy has lost some steam on the back of a stalled recovery in oil prices. All industries gained in the quarter, and lower quality continues to outperform higher quality: BBB corporate bonds have returned 4.3 percent for the year, while AA-rated and A-rated corporates have returned 2.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. As a result, we have seen a significant flattening of the credit curve beyond 2014 levels.
All industries gained in the quarter, and lower quality continues to outperform higher quality: BBB corporate bonds have returned 4.3 percent for the year, while AA-rated and A-rated corporates have returned 2.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. As a result, we have seen a significant flattening of the credit curve beyond 2014 levels.
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 7.17.2017.
We believe a dramatic backup in spreads is not likely in the near term given the overwhelming technicals in the market, but the high level of complacency is concerning. The Bloomberg Barclays Corporate Aggregate three-month trading range is currently at its tightest in five years. We will look to add risk at better entry points as we enter a period of seasonal weakness and typically higher volatility. We remain cautious on corporate bonds issued by retailers and autos, as both industries continue to see sub-par earnings results. We continue to add higher-quality, longer-dated risk opportunistically when rates oscillate toward the higher end of their recent range.
—Jeffrey Carefoot, CFA, Senior Managing Director; Justin Takata, Director
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2017, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.
Investors are coming to terms with the idea that the Fed will keep raising rates because of inflation and economic pressures.
Euphoria at Davos may be a sign that the market melt up may soon begin to cool.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.