November 19, 2018
Non-Agency RMBS prices remained stable in the third quarter as steady demand from investors and dealers allowed the market to shrug off higher mortgage rates and mixed housing data. We remain constructive on the performance prospects for the sector as borrower credit curing and negative net supply should continue to support the market. Higher rates have created a headwind for housing affordability—mortgage rates have increased by 100 basis points in the last 12 months, equating to a 12 percent borrower payment increase on a typical 30-year fixed rate, level pay, fully amortizing mortgage. Although this has caused housing demand to soften recently, longer-term trends of favorable demographics, and limited near-term supply should continue to support housing valuations. The U.S. homeownership rate, has been rising in response to improved economic conditions and increased household formations since bottoming out in 2016. With nationwide affordability near historical averages and supply choked by a decade of depressed new construction, the housing market still appears to be on solid ground.
The U.S. homeownership rate has been rising in response to improved economic conditions and an increase in household formations, particularly among homeowners since bottoming out in 2016.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018.
The non-Agency RMBS sector outperformed the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate index, posting a 1.4 percent total return for the third quarter and 5 percent year to date. Third-quarter new issuance totaled $18 billion, with year-to-date issuance tracking significantly higher than experienced through the third quarter of 2017. New issue in the third quarter comprised $8 billion of recently originated prime and nonprime RMBS, $7 billion of non- and re-performing loan-backed deals, and $3.5 billion in credit risk transfer. Rising short-term interest rates have syphoned issuance away from non-performing loans (NPL) RMBS and toward prime RMBS. Rising bank deposit costs increase the attractiveness of private-label execution for prime loans relative to balance sheet execution. Conversely, higher short-term interest rates pressured financing costs for sponsors of short tenor NPL-backed deals.
Rising bank deposit costs increase the attractiveness of private-label execution for prime loans relative to balance sheet execution. Conversely, higher short-term interest rates pressured financing costs for sponsors of short tenor NPL-backed deals.
Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9.30.2018.
Despite our constructive sector view, finding relative value within RMBS remains challenging. Spreads remain near post-crisis tights and the market offers little compensation for bearing increased spread duration, subordination, or idiosyncratic risk. We continue to favor shorter maturity and structurally senior tranches for their lower potential price volatility as well as passthroughs backed by seasoned credit-sensitive collateral types that should benefit from improving credit fundamentals.
—Karthik Narayanan, CFA, Managing Director; Roy Park, Director; Alex Zhang, Vice President
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.
Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.
Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.
Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the first quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.