Fundamental improvements should support credit-blemished loans, but tight valuations favor capital structure seniority.
We continue to believe that the yield curve will flatten further and that a barbell position is appropriate.
Positive earnings growth has improved fundamentals, but our research shows where to look for potential credit weakness in high-yield corporate bonds.
Fed policy—and the market’s reaction to it—will be a key driver of opportunities in 2018.
We favor senior CLO debt and well-protected ABS as the credit cycle ages.
The share of loans trading above par has declined from the peak earlier in the year, easing some refinancing pressure.
Dislocation between primary and secondary CMBS markets limits near-term upside.
Sales volumes slowed again in the first half of 2017, and valuations have likely passed their cyclical peak.
Seasonal patterns suggest that we will experience more summer volatility before an end-of-year rally.
Technicals are creating some opportunity, but market complacency in the face of headwinds is concerning.
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