Seasonal patterns suggest that we will experience more summer volatility before an end-of-year rally.
Technicals are creating some opportunity, but market complacency in the face of headwinds is concerning.
Focus on quality as political uncertainty and budgetary concerns haunt many municipalities.
We favor a defensive approach that emphasizes shorter-maturity senior tranches.
A barbell position remains appropriate as the yield curve flattens further.
High-yield and bank loan coupons are converging—just as they have in the past three tightening cycles.
Finding value in off-the-run transactions.
The Fed’s balance sheet normalization plans raise concerns, but declining prepayment risk should diminish the net impact.
Spreads continued to tighten as refinancing surges, but they remain well above pre-crisis averages.
Negative net supply, insatiable demand, and risk retention requirements compress AAA/BBB spreads.
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