Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.


 
Market Perspectives

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

While the market will remain volatile and likely lead to a period of outright panic, that is when having a “cool head” will pay off.

Read more

Macro View

Complacency in Uncharted Waters

The next challenge for central bankers is changing monetary policy when the economy has come to depend on it.

Read more

Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – April 2016

While spreads have since narrowed, we are still finding bargains in high-yield bonds and bank loans.

Read more

Media Appearance

CNBC: Central Banks In a Box

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, explains why the central banks in developed economies are getting trapped in current monetary policy, including negative interest rates and quantitative easing.

Watch Video

Portfolio Strategy

Fixed-Income Outlook: First Quarter 2016

In our new quarterly publication, the leaders of our fixed-income investment team discuss relative value and the economic outlook in current market conditions.

Read more

Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

 
 

Recent Perspectives

January 15, 2016

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – January 2016

We continue to expect that defaults will remain largely contained to commodity-related sectors despite the market’s dimming outlook for risk assets. While we keep a vigilant eye on the fundamental trends that underpin our credit views, it is important to remember during market conditions such as these that we are long-term investors, not traders. These are markets in which the strongest convictions are tested, but cooler heads prevail in the end.

Read Report


January 11, 2016

The Benefits of Collateralized Loan Obligations

CLOs currently offer higher spreads compared to other fixed-income sectors and have features that make them well-positioned for a rising interest rate environment. But common misconceptions about risk and liquidity are causing many fixed-income strategies to miss out on the benefits of this overlooked sector.

Read More


January 06, 2016

A Happy New Year After All

As we return to work after the holidays, a sharp sell off in global equities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East beg the question whether this New Year will be a happy one for investors. I believe the recent market swings are no more than passing disruptions. For U.S. equities and credit, in particular, evidence is mounting that 2016 will prove happier than 2015 for investors. In fact, the global factors currently roiling the markets are easy to discount, and could lead to investment opportunities.

Read More


December 17, 2015

What the Fed's Rate Hike Means for Investors

Historically, both equities and fixed income have performed solidly in the initial years of Fed tightening cycles.

Read More


November 23, 2015

Happy Holidays for Risk Assets

As the United States prepares for its Thanksgiving holiday (or what is now affectionately referred to as the day before Black Friday), there are reasons for tired and weary benchmark investors to be grateful. We are now in a season where past misfortunes are behind us and risk assets—particularly high yield bonds and bank loans—are well positioned to enjoy a prosperous road ahead.

Read More


November 06, 2015

Bad News Is Good News, Once Again

Any bad news or setback in the global economy is likely to be met with a policy decision that will be supportive for credit and equity markets; therefore, at this point, I see limited downside for risk assets between now and year end. Put another way, a December hike by the Federal Reserve should be taken as a sign that the Fed is sufficiently comfortable with the strength of the economy and the near-term outlook, which should be good news for investors. Given the October employment report, December liftoff has become a virtual certainty unless there is some catastrophic event between now and then.

Read More


October 23, 2015

China's Currency Conundrum

There is a striking discontinuity of thinking about the greatest economic headwind facing the world today: the slowdown in China. Investors seem to universally agree that China will continue to weigh on the global economy until it devalues its currency, yet few think such an adjustment is likely anytime soon. Passive Chinese policymaking can provide a more benign environment for risk assets in the short term, but ultimately, it holds back the world’s second largest economy and, consequently, global growth.

Read More


October 14, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – October 2015

While volatility in credit markets may not yet be over, we believe now is the time to look for new high-yield and bank loan investment opportunities.

Read More


September 15, 2015

The Fed's Dilemma

Twice in the past 30 years the U.S. Federal Reserve has faced the prospect of prematurely abandoning tightening during market turmoil. Today, global currency devaluations, market volatility, and plunging commodity prices have trapped the Fed in a similar policy dilemma.

Read More


August 24, 2015

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The recent global equity market selloff reflects a long-awaited—and I believe ultimately healthy—market correction. A number of commentators speculated that after Monday morning’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the intra-day reversal indicated that we reached a bottom. In the very short run, I would agree. However, longer term, neither fundamental nor technical data support that we have reached the levels of capitulation associated with the end of a market correction.

Read More




© 2016 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.