Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.

Market Perspectives

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

While the market will remain volatile and likely lead to a period of outright panic, that is when having a “cool head” will pay off.

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Macro View

The Endgame for Oil

Market fundamentals suggest we have reached a new point in the global energy story.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2016

Today’s markets test the strongest convictions, but we believe it is a passing storm.

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Media Appearance

CNBC: “Better Values” Beyond U.S. Stocks

While global tailwinds continue to dog the markets, Global CIO Scott Minerd tells CNBC that this is not 2008, but rather an “interesting” time to invest.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.


Recent Perspectives

July 15, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2015

The energy sector represents an attractive opportunity to invest in high yielding securities, but investors must consider the sector specific first- and second-order effects of depressed energy prices.

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July 06, 2015

Staring Into an Abyss

With a resounding "NO" vote on the Greek referendum to accept the terms of Europe's proposed "bailout," market pundits are out in force talking about the coming turmoil. I think investors and policymakers alike would be wise to step back and put this unexpected outcome into perspective for the long term.

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June 25, 2015

Sunny with a Chance of Turbulence

Despite the fact that returns across U.S. investment categories are pretty dismal year to date, markets are pricing optimistically and it seems the sunshine has brought growth back to the U.S. economy. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 280,000 increase in employment in May. Additionally, building permits rose 11.8 percent in May, better than the 3.5 percent decline forecast by economists, while the pace of existing home sales hit its fastest rate since late 2009. Taking everything into account, the likelihood that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next year or two would appear to be extremely remote. Still, seemingly isolated events could yet sour the mood.

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June 19, 2015

Connecting the Dots

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee expressed a more dovish outlook for the long term, but one that clearly puts September in the crosshairs for an interest rate hike after six long years at the zero bound. In the meantime, we are becoming vulnerable to some sort of summer risk-off trade. At this stage, it would be prudent to prepare for a risk-off period by the opportunistic liquidation of lower-quality high yield and bank loans, which have appreciated in price this year, and selectively taking gains in stocks while increasing holdings in cash and Treasury securities, as a precaution in preparation of a potential looming summer dislocation.

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June 05, 2015

Against this Rosy Backdrop

As expected, the second quarter bounce back has taken hold. The rebound in U.S. growth is supported by continued employment and wage growth and tailwinds from lower energy prices over the past 12 months. Add a stable dollar and the rebounding European economy into the mix and even exports should help to keep U.S. growth on track. But against this rosy backdrop, bond yields have risen more than I would have expected and seasonals have turned against stocks.

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May 15, 2015

Strange Machinations

The shock of just 0.2 percent GDP growth for the first quarter should have driven rates down. Since 2010, GDP disappointments like this have led 10-year Treasury yields to fall by 5.5 basis points on average in the two days following the release. This time around, the opposite occurred—yields rose by double that, and continued to rise. Many have speculated about what caused this sell off because it was so out of line with what one would expect following a surprisingly weak GDP print. I think the reason had more to do with what was happening in Europe than what was going on in the U.S. economy. European bond market volatility has been extreme. Violent convulsions like these are not based on fundamental changes but relate to technical factors resulting from market distortions created by quantitative easing and macroprudential policy. Similarly, the backup in U.S. rates is likely a result of market machinations.

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May 08, 2015

Dog Days of the U.S. Expansion

The U.S. economic expansion is now over 70 months old and is entering its mature phase, having already exceeded the average length of prior cycles of 57 months. There are still some golden, halcyon summer days ahead and it would be premature to put on our winter clothes just yet. However, when all is said and done, the easy money in this expansion has already been made and investors should be thinking about the winter to come.

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April 30, 2015

Where Is the Prudence in Macroprudential Policy?

While you may not be familiar with the concept of macroprudential policy, it is one of the most important factors in determining the long-term growth potential of the U.S. economy and the ability for all its citizens to share in that growth. Without significant adjustment, actions taken by policymakers today may come at a great cost to future generations.

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April 24, 2015

Sine of the Times

For the past 30 years, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have shown a clear downward linear trend, falling from over 10 percent in 1985 to less than 2 percent today. If we assume the secular, linear downward trend in yields will continue in the near term, the model currently predicts rates will bottom at 0.82 percent in March 2016. I am not necessarily predicting that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will test zero, but there are many powerful secular and fundamental forces at work that signal the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

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April 14, 2015

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - April 2015

How high yield bonds and bank loans can help investors position for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate tightening cycle.

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