Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.


 
Market Perspectives

Sustainable Development: The Future of Investing

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, explains in the Milken Institute’s Power of Ideas why sustainable development will be a key component of long-term investment performance.

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Macro View

Why the G7 May Be Hastening Helicopter Money

Faced with a sharply appreciating yen, and lacking G7 support, Japan may need to take extreme measures.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – April 2016

While spreads have since narrowed, we are still finding bargains in high-yield bonds and bank loans.

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Media Appearance

Minerd on WealthTrack: Fixed Income Strategies in a Negative Rate World

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, discusses challenges and opportunities in today’s market with WealthTrack’s Consuelo Mack.

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Portfolio Strategy

Fixed-Income Outlook: Managing Through a Persistent State of Heightened Volatility

In the second quarter 2016 edition of the Fixed-Income Outlook, the leaders of our fixed-income investment team discuss relative value and our current economic outlook.

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Minerd on WealthTrack: Fixed Income Strategy in a Negative Rate World

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, discusses challenges and opportunities in today’s market with WealthTrack’s Consuelo Mack.

“The Fed is now hostage to the markets,” Minerd warned Mack as they discussed market challenges and opportunities on a recent edition of PBS' WealthTrack. “The problem is that as central banks around the world keep searching for new ways to stimulate the economy, it’s creating imbalances, so we’re slowly seeing asset classes get inflated.”

For investors, this dynamic creates an unusual conundrum: Where to find assets that represent value given the heightened risk inherent in a global economy awash in manipulated liquidity. In the following video series, including highlights from the interview, Minerd shares insights on how careful security selection and a disciplined approach to investing can help steer investors through challenging market conditions.

 

Recent Perspectives

January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research team believes that as the massive El Niño weather pattern gains strength, it should become a boon to the U.S. economy, potentially adding 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter.

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January 21, 2016

Storm Clouds Over Davos

Policymakers have precious little time to address the issue and bring this current debt episode to an orderly end. Historical evidence of success in resolving these types of issues is sparse. Quite simply, the world is in trouble and the leaders at Davos know it.

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January 20, 2016

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

Panic is a key indicator of a market bottom. Panic is associated with sharp increases in trading volumes as investors fearing further decline seek to liquidate positions. That kind of selling causes volatility to spike, as price movements accelerate to the downside. None of this has been associated with the decline to the start of 2016, which tells me we have more downside before we see bottom.

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January 15, 2016

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook – January 2016

We continue to expect that defaults will remain largely contained to commodity-related sectors despite the market’s dimming outlook for risk assets. While we keep a vigilant eye on the fundamental trends that underpin our credit views, it is important to remember during market conditions such as these that we are long-term investors, not traders. These are markets in which the strongest convictions are tested, but cooler heads prevail in the end.

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January 11, 2016

The Benefits of Collateralized Loan Obligations

CLOs currently offer higher spreads compared to other fixed-income sectors and have features that make them well-positioned for a rising interest rate environment. But common misconceptions about risk and liquidity are causing many fixed-income strategies to miss out on the benefits of this overlooked sector.

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January 06, 2016

A Happy New Year After All

As we return to work after the holidays, a sharp sell off in global equities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East beg the question whether this New Year will be a happy one for investors. I believe the recent market swings are no more than passing disruptions. For U.S. equities and credit, in particular, evidence is mounting that 2016 will prove happier than 2015 for investors. In fact, the global factors currently roiling the markets are easy to discount, and could lead to investment opportunities.

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December 17, 2015

What the Fed's Rate Hike Means for Investors

Historically, both equities and fixed income have performed solidly in the initial years of Fed tightening cycles.

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November 23, 2015

Happy Holidays for Risk Assets

As the United States prepares for its Thanksgiving holiday (or what is now affectionately referred to as the day before Black Friday), there are reasons for tired and weary benchmark investors to be grateful. We are now in a season where past misfortunes are behind us and risk assets—particularly high yield bonds and bank loans—are well positioned to enjoy a prosperous road ahead.

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November 06, 2015

Bad News Is Good News, Once Again

Any bad news or setback in the global economy is likely to be met with a policy decision that will be supportive for credit and equity markets; therefore, at this point, I see limited downside for risk assets between now and year end. Put another way, a December hike by the Federal Reserve should be taken as a sign that the Fed is sufficiently comfortable with the strength of the economy and the near-term outlook, which should be good news for investors. Given the October employment report, December liftoff has become a virtual certainty unless there is some catastrophic event between now and then.

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October 23, 2015

China's Currency Conundrum

There is a striking discontinuity of thinking about the greatest economic headwind facing the world today: the slowdown in China. Investors seem to universally agree that China will continue to weigh on the global economy until it devalues its currency, yet few think such an adjustment is likely anytime soon. Passive Chinese policymaking can provide a more benign environment for risk assets in the short term, but ultimately, it holds back the world’s second largest economy and, consequently, global growth.

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