Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd leads Guggenheim Partners’ macroeconomic and investment research functions. Together, our team of economists, strategists, and analysts provides investors with economic and policy analyses and assessments of their potential impacts on asset prices.


 
Market Perspectives

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

While the market will remain volatile and likely lead to a period of outright panic, that is when having a “cool head” will pay off.

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Macro View

The Endgame for Oil

Market fundamentals suggest we have reached a new point in the global energy story.

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Sector Report

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2016

Today’s markets test the strongest convictions, but we believe it is a passing storm.

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Media Appearance

CNBC: “Better Values” Beyond U.S. Stocks

While global tailwinds continue to dog the markets, Global CIO Scott Minerd tells CNBC that this is not 2008, but rather an “interesting” time to invest.

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Portfolio Strategy

The Core Conundrum

As benchmark yields languish near historical lows, the chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities deepens, creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.

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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

 
 

Recent Perspectives

February 05, 2016

The Endgame for Oil

In the fourth quarter of 2014, I asserted that a barrel of oil would average $45 during 2015 and 2016. Given the nature of the growing supply glut and OPEC’s unwillingness to cooperate on reducing output, I also projected that there was risk of a spike down to $25 per barrel before prices would stabilize. While far from consensus, my pessimism at the time now smacks of optimism. Today, looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.

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January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.

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January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research team believes that as the massive El Niño weather pattern gains strength, it should become a boon to the U.S. economy, potentially adding 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter.

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January 21, 2016

Storm Clouds Over Davos

Policymakers have precious little time to address the issue and bring this current debt episode to an orderly end. Historical evidence of success in resolving these types of issues is sparse. Quite simply, the world is in trouble and the leaders at Davos know it.

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January 20, 2016

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

Panic is a key indicator of a market bottom. Panic is associated with sharp increases in trading volumes as investors fearing further decline seek to liquidate positions. That kind of selling causes volatility to spike, as price movements accelerate to the downside. None of this has been associated with the decline to the start of 2016, which tells me we have more downside before we see bottom.

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January 15, 2016

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - January 2016

We continue to expect that defaults will remain largely contained to commodity-related sectors despite the market’s dimming outlook for risk assets. While we keep a vigilant eye on the fundamental trends that underpin our credit views, it is important to remember during market conditions such as these that we are long-term investors, not traders. These are markets in which the strongest convictions are tested, but cooler heads prevail in the end.

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January 06, 2016

A Happy New Year After All

As we return to work after the holidays, a sharp sell off in global equities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East beg the question whether this New Year will be a happy one for investors. I believe the recent market swings are no more than passing disruptions. For U.S. equities and credit, in particular, evidence is mounting that 2016 will prove happier than 2015 for investors. In fact, the global factors currently roiling the markets are easy to discount, and could lead to investment opportunities.

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December 17, 2015

What the Fed's Rate Hike Means for Investors

Historically, both equities and fixed income have performed solidly in the initial years of Fed tightening cycles.

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November 23, 2015

Happy Holidays for Risk Assets

As the United States prepares for its Thanksgiving holiday (or what is now affectionately referred to as the day before Black Friday), there are reasons for tired and weary benchmark investors to be grateful. We are now in a season where past misfortunes are behind us and risk assets—particularly high yield bonds and bank loans—are well positioned to enjoy a prosperous road ahead.

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November 06, 2015

Bad News Is Good News, Once Again

Any bad news or setback in the global economy is likely to be met with a policy decision that will be supportive for credit and equity markets; therefore, at this point, I see limited downside for risk assets between now and year end. Put another way, a December hike by the Federal Reserve should be taken as a sign that the Fed is sufficiently comfortable with the strength of the economy and the near-term outlook, which should be good news for investors. Given the October employment report, December liftoff has become a virtual certainty unless there is some catastrophic event between now and then.

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