Benign conditions support near term value in credit, but default rates will rise as the Fed tightens further and corporate debt levels continue to grow.
Prepare for when the effects of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and monetary policy keeps getting more restrictive.
Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.
Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.
Investors are coming to terms with the idea that the Fed will keep raising rates because of inflation and economic pressures.
Euphoria at Davos may be a sign that the market melt up may soon begin to cool.
VIDEO
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
Watch Video
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.
Policymakers take heed: Successful economic policy is still determined by the four essential factors of production—land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship.
The deep chasm between investors’ return targets and current market realities is creating a conundrum for core fixed-income investors.
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