Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.
Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.
Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.
An uptick in corporate defaults in 2019 will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of stress in the corporate bond market.
To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.
Shortening duration, maintaining an investment-grade portfolio, and generating attractive yields do not have to be competing investment objectives for core fixed-income investors.
VIDEO
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.
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Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the first quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.
Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.
A framework for transitioning sustainable investing to an institutional asset class.
Finding value in complexity: The structure, risks, and investor-friendly features of asset-backed securities.
Explaining the structure and investor-friendly features of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), an often misunderstood sector of structured credit.
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