Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 25: Fixed-Income Pain Giving Way to Opportunity

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, on the economic and credit cycle, and on risk and opportunity across the fixed-income landscape.


November 04, 2022

The Jobs Data Trend Is Duration’s Friend

October jobs data suggests a cooling labor market.


October 28, 2022

Weaker Payrolls Will Reward Pent-Up Demand for Fed Pivot

Weakening jobs picture will signal that Fed tightening is working as intended.


August 19, 2022

Stocks Are in Trouble if S&P Fails to Break Above its 200-day Moving Average

Deeper losses for equities may lay ahead.


August 11, 2022

The Inflation Moderation We Expected Should Continue

Lower July CPI inflation is likely the beginning of a trend.


June 30, 2022

Recession Signals Flashing Red

The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.


May 18, 2022

Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision

The risks of tightening into a downturn.


April 12, 2022

An Investor’s Guide to the Runup to Recession

Comparing pre-recession performance of multiple asset classes.


January 07, 2022

Strange Jobs Report Opens Door for March Rate Hike

Employment and inflation data raise the likelihood of Fed activity.


November 01, 2021

Yield Curve Flattening Carries a Warning About Looming Rate Hike Cycle

The long end of the yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2009.


September 15, 2021

Weak Data and Fiscal Uncertainty Will Delay Fed Tapering

Bond yields could fall further as rising fiscal risks get priced in.