Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


January 22, 2020

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2020

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.


December 23, 2019

Signs of Life in Global Manufacturing

The beleaguered manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement.


December 23, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2019

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the risk and reward of “mid-cycle” rate cuts.


September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.


August 22, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2019

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.


August 22, 2019

Fed Cuts Rates as Downside Risks Build

The U.S. economy is strong, but soft inflation and downside risks to growth prompted the first Fed rate cut since 2008.


June 17, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.


June 17, 2019

Will the Fed’s Pivot Save the Day?

Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.


April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.


March 07, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.







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