Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

The Long Road to Recovery

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, discussed his outlook for markets and the economy with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan during the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference.


June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.


June 04, 2021

Unpacking the May Jobs Report: Further Progress, but Far from Substantial

A disappointing May jobs report strengthens our conviction that Fed policymakers will stay the course.


May 19, 2021

Inflation Is Spiking, But You Only Reopen the Economy Once

The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.


May 03, 2021

The Coming Disinflation

Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.


April 05, 2021

Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market

Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.


March 29, 2021

Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.


March 22, 2021

The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve

Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.


March 22, 2021

The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve

Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.


March 16, 2021

Inflation: Time For a Reality Check

Our view is that inflation will generally remain subdued in coming years, allowing the Fed to point to cumulative shortfalls from its two percent goal to support delaying the start of policy tightening.


March 11, 2021

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2021

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we are staying on offense.