Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.


August 22, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2019

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.


August 22, 2019

Fed Cuts Rates as Downside Risks Build

The U.S. economy is strong, but soft inflation and downside risks to growth prompted the first Fed rate cut since 2008.


June 17, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.


June 17, 2019

Will the Fed’s Pivot Save the Day?

Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.


April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.


March 07, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.


March 07, 2019

It’s All Downhill from Here

Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.


January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.


November 19, 2018

Rising Rates Are Beginning to Bite

Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.







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