Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.

April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.

March 07, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.

March 07, 2019

It’s All Downhill from Here

Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.

January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.

November 19, 2018

Rising Rates Are Beginning to Bite

Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.

November 19, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2018

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe it is time to start jogging to the exits.

October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.

August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.

August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.