Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.


May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.


May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.


February 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.


February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.


November 14, 2017

Normalizing Today, Overshooting Tomorrow

A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.


November 14, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2017

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.







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