Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

First Quarter 2022 Market Outlook

Maria Giraldo, CFA, Managing Director, Investment Research, and Evan Serdensky, Director, Portfolio Management, provide our macro and markets outlook.


June 30, 2022

Recession Signals Flashing Red

The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.


May 18, 2022

Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision

The risks of tightening into a downturn.


April 12, 2022

An Investor’s Guide to the Runup to Recession

Comparing pre-recession performance of multiple asset classes.


January 07, 2022

Strange Jobs Report Opens Door for March Rate Hike

Employment and inflation data raise the likelihood of Fed activity.


November 01, 2021

Yield Curve Flattening Carries a Warning About Looming Rate Hike Cycle

The long end of the yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2009.


September 15, 2021

Weak Data and Fiscal Uncertainty Will Delay Fed Tapering

Bond yields could fall further as rising fiscal risks get priced in.


August 18, 2021

Delta Impact on Consumer Behavior Will Delay Tapering Announcement

The resurgent virus should keep a lid on Treasury Yields.


August 11, 2021

Latest CPI Validates the Transitory Nature of Inflation Spikes

Falling demand will help limit the extent of more price increases.


July 14, 2021

Still No Reason to Panic About Inflation

Taking a look at the upside surprise in June’s CPI.


June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.