Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.
Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.
Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.
Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.
Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe it is time to start jogging to the exits.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.
Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.
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