April 03, 2013 | By Scott Minerd
The U.S. economy continues to improve, and the housing market and construction spending in particular will make larger contributions to GDP than they have in years. Markets, though, have a tendency to occasionally fall out of line with fundamentals. In 2011, for instance, the economy was gaining strength, but a temporary pull-back in the markets put stocks off nearly 20%, and high yield and bank loan spreads exploded.
Today it appears that the rally that has been in place since the fall of 2012 is becoming frayed. From credits to stocks, there are indications of tiredness, with each advance posting less robust gains than the prior one. This does not portend a bear market, but it does appear increasingly likely that despite the favorable longer-term economic outlook, we will see some sort of correction or consolidation in the near-term.
Five years since the last recession started, payrolls in the U.S. private sector are still 2.9 million less than pre-recession levels. The construction sector, which usually employs only 6% of U.S. total jobs in the private sector, has lost 1.7 million jobs during the same period. With the recovery in the housing market accelerating, hiring in the construction sector is regaining momentum. Over the past three months, construction payrolls have increased by 111,000, accounting for approximately 18% of total job growth in the private sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 2/28/2013.
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2014, Guggenheim Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
While the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, exogenous risks threaten asset values, market confidence, and the strength of the U.S. economy.
To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.
Investors should stay guarded for exogenous shocks that could pull the next recession forward and cause markets to reprice credit risk.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.