March 06, 2013 | By Scott Minerd
We are not at risk of seeing an immediate correction in asset prices, but we are moving into a transition period that will be characterized by greater uncertainty around policy moves. As credit spreads continue to tighten, the market will eventually anticipate a move by the Federal Reserve to normalize interest rates. Intuitively, rising interest rates should lead to widening credit spreads, but historically that has not been the case. Instead, the past several times that the Fed has ended accommodation it has been interpreted as positive for markets. This was because the Fed would only cease accommodative policies when its members believed that economic growth would continue to accelerate. Given the historical precedents, investors should recognize that a normalization of monetary policy is unlikely to immediately cause spreads to widen.
A normalization of monetary accommodation does not necessarily lead to an imminent widening in credit spreads. Since 1986, the Federal Reserve started to unwind its easing policies five times, during four of which, U.S. high yield spreads continued to ratchet in. On average, credit spreads kept tightening for nine months following the first increase in the Federal Funds Target Rate, as the strengthening economy tended to remain supportive of risk assets.
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 2/28/2013. *Note: The range is generated by calculating the max/min value for all five previous cycles.
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2014, Guggenheim Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
Preparing for the market turbulence that typically occurs in the run up to a recession.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.
Factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth this year will fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds in 2020, exposing leveraged corporate borrowers.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.