January 28, 2016
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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.
Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.
Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.
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