Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.
Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.
A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.
Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.
Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.
Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.
Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.
Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.
Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook suggest that now is a time for caution amid tight spreads and evolving monetary and fiscal policy.
A tightening labor market and near-target inflation will keep the Fed on track even as fiscal policy sputters.
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