Maria Giraldo, CFA, Managing Director, Investment Research, and Evan Serdensky, Director, Portfolio Management, provide our macro and markets outlook.
The beleaguered manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement.
Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the risk and reward of “mid-cycle” rate cuts.
History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.
Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.
The U.S. economy is strong, but soft inflation and downside risks to growth prompted the first Fed rate cut since 2008.
Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.
Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.
Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.
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