Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.
Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.
New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.
Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.
Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.
Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.
A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.
Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.
Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.
Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.
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