Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.

 

Midyear 2021 Outlook

SBrian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.

Forecasting the Next Recession

October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost - Image Thumbnail

August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018 - Image Thumbnail

August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.

Hazards of the Next Two Years - Image Thumbnail

August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018 - Image Thumbnail

May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide - Image Thumbnail

May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.

Forecasting the Next Recession

May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018 - Image Thumbnail

February 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away - Image Thumbnail

February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 - Image Thumbnail

January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.




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