Fixed-Income Outlook: A Tight Market Gets Tighter - Title Image

Fixed-Income Outlook: A Tight Market Gets Tighter

Prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.

November 13, 2017


Fixed Income Outlook video

Steve Brown and Maria Giraldo provide additional perspective on our 4Q 2017 Fixed-Income Outlook.


Report Summary

Virtually every piece of data you could look at is associated with a solid economy, and it is about to get stronger from the surge in post-hurricane rebuilding, seasonal tailwinds, and possible tax cuts. At the same time, the Fed is ratcheting rates higher and normalizing its balance sheet, spreads in most fixed-income sectors are moving to historical tights, and below investment-grade yields are likely to breach historical lows. Investors today are simply not being compensated for the risks they are taking. The question now is how to generate yield without taking on undue interest-rate or credit risk. The challenge is to avoid chasing short-term gains and maintain the discipline required for long-term investing success.

 
 
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This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2017 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

Not Too Soon to Think About Defaults and Recovery Rates - Featured Perspectives
April 12, 2018

Not Too Soon to Think About Defaults and Recovery Rates

Benign conditions support near term value in credit, but default rates will rise as the Fed tightens further and corporate debt levels continue to grow.

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide - Featured Perspectives
March 26, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Prepare for when the effects of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and monetary policy keeps getting more restrictive.

Fixed-Income Outlook: Walking the Risk Tightrope - Featured Perspectives
February 21, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook: Walking the Risk Tightrope

Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecating the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







© 2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.