Bank Loans: Rising Carry Continues to Attract Flows

Rising net supply of institutional loans has weighed on performance, but rising carry attributed to higher Libor continues to attract inflows.

August 23, 2018


This Bank Loans sector report is excerpted from the Third Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook.

The percent of loans trading above par declined to only 15 percent of the market as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, down from over 60 percent at the end of the first quarter. This has caused a shift in primary activity as issuers lost some of their incentive to refinance existing loans. Filling this void is a resurgence in volume related to M&A and leveraged buyouts (LBOs) since tax reform was passed. Year to date through July, over 55 percent of loans issued were for M&A and LBO activities. This trend, accompanied by increasing leverage ratios, is something we typically see toward the end of the business cycle.

The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index gained 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2018, making it the 10th consecutive quarter of positive returns in the loan market. This brings year-to-date return to 2.4 percent, with loans outperforming high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds as investors sought duration protection amid rising rates.

Supply dynamics have not significantly weighed on returns because rising carry income continues to support loan returns this year relative to other fixed-rate sectors. One-month and three-month Libor have risen by 90 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively, since June 2017. Over the same period, average current yields on institutional loans have risen from 5.1 percent to 5.9 percent. Given our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group’s view that the Fed will raise rates two more times in 2018 and four times in 2019, higher short-term rates are likely to continue to attract inflows to loans over the next 18 months, but it will be important to monitor demand dynamics as CLO spreads have widened since the beginning of the year. This makes it difficult for CLOs to maintain an attractive asset-liability spread and could weaken demand from the loan market’s largest investor base. We thus believe that some technical headwinds lie ahead for the loan market, but rising coupons may cushion any negative price impact.

M&A and LBO Loans Have Risen, Filling the Refi Void

Quarterly M&A- and LBO-Related Institutional Loan Issuance

The percent of loans trading above par declined to only 15 percent of the market as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, down from over 60 percent at the end of the first quarter. Filling this void, over 55 percent of loans issued were for M&A and LBO activities year to date through July.

M&A and LBO Loans Have Risen, Filling the Refi Void

Source: S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018.

Increasing Share of New Leveraged Loans Have Debt Ratios Greater than 6x

Share of Large Corporate Loan Transactions by Debt / EBITDA Ratio

Increasing leverage ratios, accompanied by decline in loan refinancing, is a phenomenon we typically encounter toward the end of the business cycle.

Increasing Share of New Leveraged Loans Have Debt Ratios Greater than 6x

Source: S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.30.2018.

—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Christopher Keywork, Managing Director

 
Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding - Featured Perspectives
March 07, 2019

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding

Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.

Amber Lights Flash at Davos - Featured Perspectives
January 24, 2019

Amber Lights Flash at Davos

Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.

Sometimes Meteors Strike the Earth - Featured Perspectives
December 27, 2018

Sometimes Meteors Strike the Earth

What would be a normal seasonal correction is turning into the worst December selloff in equities since the Great Depression.


VIDEO

Fixed-Income Outlook 

First Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the first quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







© 2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.