August 23, 2018
The percent of loans trading above par declined to only 15 percent of the market as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, down from over 60 percent at the end of the first quarter. This has caused a shift in primary activity as issuers lost some of their incentive to refinance existing loans. Filling this void is a resurgence in volume related to M&A and leveraged buyouts (LBOs) since tax reform was passed. Year to date through July, over 55 percent of loans issued were for M&A and LBO activities. This trend, accompanied by increasing leverage ratios, is something we typically see toward the end of the business cycle.
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index gained 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2018, making it the 10th consecutive quarter of positive returns in the loan market. This brings year-to-date return to 2.4 percent, with loans outperforming high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds as investors sought duration protection amid rising rates.
Supply dynamics have not significantly weighed on returns because rising carry income continues to support loan returns this year relative to other fixed-rate sectors. One-month and three-month Libor have risen by 90 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively, since June 2017. Over the same period, average current yields on institutional loans have risen from 5.1 percent to 5.9 percent. Given our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group’s view that the Fed will raise rates two more times in 2018 and four times in 2019, higher short-term rates are likely to continue to attract inflows to loans over the next 18 months, but it will be important to monitor demand dynamics as CLO spreads have widened since the beginning of the year. This makes it difficult for CLOs to maintain an attractive asset-liability spread and could weaken demand from the loan market’s largest investor base. We thus believe that some technical headwinds lie ahead for the loan market, but rising coupons may cushion any negative price impact.
The percent of loans trading above par declined to only 15 percent of the market as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, down from over 60 percent at the end of the first quarter. Filling this void, over 55 percent of loans issued were for M&A and LBO activities year to date through July.
Source: S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018.
Increasing leverage ratios, accompanied by decline in loan refinancing, is a phenomenon we typically encounter toward the end of the business cycle.
Source: S&P LCD, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.30.2018.
—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Christopher Keywork, Managing Director
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
What would be a normal seasonal correction is turning into the worst December selloff in equities since the Great Depression.
Preparing for the market turbulence that typically occurs in the run up to a recession.
Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.
Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”
In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”
You are now leaving this website.Guggenheim assumes no responsibility of the content or its accuracy.
Your browser does not support iframes.
2019 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.