Third Quarter 2022 Fixed-Income Sector Views - Title Image

Third Quarter 2022 Fixed-Income Sector Views

Relative value and performance drivers across fixed-income sectors.

August 02, 2022


The combination of high inflation, the market pricing in the most aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening path in decades, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and continuous COVID-related lockdowns in China led fixed income to suffer a painful first half of 2022. No market sector was spared, but as our third quarter 2022 Fixed-Income Sector Views describes, the pain was not uniform.

Looking ahead, the Fed is intent on tightening financial conditions in an effort to slow the economy, keep inflation expectations in check, and bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. The dollar is strengthening, recession risks have clearly risen, and the yield curve will likely continue to flatten. In this environment, our Sector Teams discuss market yields and spreads, the credit backdrop, drivers of performance, and where they are finding value.

Important Notices and Disclosures

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the authors, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The potential impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak are increasingly uncertain, difficult to assess and impossible to predict, and may result in significant losses. Any adverse event could materially and negatively impact the value and performance of our strategies and their ability to achieve their investment objectives. Investments in bonds and other fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their value to decline. Investors in asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and other structured finance investments generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate at which the underlying borrowers pay off their loans. Some asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, causing their prices to be volatile. These instruments are particularly subject to interest rate, credit and liquidity and valuation risks. High-yield bonds may present additional risks because these securities may be less liquid, and therefore more difficult to value accurately and sell at an advantageous price or time, and present more credit risk than investment grade bonds. The price of high yield securities tends to be subject to greater volatility due to issuer-specific operating results and outlook and to real or perceived adverse economic and competitive industry conditions. Bank loans, including loan syndicates and other direct lending opportunities, involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, counterparty risk and prepayment risk. Loans may offer a fixed or floating interest rate. Loans are often generally below investment grade, may be unrated, and can be difficult to value accurately and may be more susceptible to liquidity risk than fixed-income instruments of similar credit quality and/or maturity. Municipal bonds may be subject to credit, interest, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. In addition, municipal securities can be affected by unfavorable legislative or political developments and adverse changes in the economic and fiscal conditions of state and municipal issuers or the federal government in case it provides financial support to such issuers. A company’s preferred stock generally pays dividends only after the company makes required payments to holders of its bonds and other debt. For this reason, the value of preferred stock will usually react more strongly than bonds and other debt to actual or perceived changes in the company’s financial condition or prospects. Basis point: One basis point is equal to 0.01 percent. Likewise, 100 basis points equals 1 percent.

1. Guggenheim Investments assets under management are as of 6.30.2022 and include leverage of $18.3bn.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Fund Management (Europe) Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

2. Guggenheim Partners assets under management are as of 6.30.2022 and include consulting services for clients whose assets are valued at approximately $79 bn.

©2022, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is an affiliate of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. For information, call 800.345.7999 or 800.820.0888.

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