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History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.
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Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.
Prepayment risk for recently originated mortgages is high.
Investor demand for investment-grade credit is increasing competition for aircraft ABS.
Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.
Secondary loan prices rose in the second quarter on the back of robust CLO demand.
The CRE-CLO product is in its early years while conduit is showing its age.
Real estate investors mull the ramifications of rent control.
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